On May 10, Vietnam’s Electricity Administration (EVN) said monitoring operations of the national power grid in April and early May had increased persistent intense heat and increased electricity consumption.

HYDROPOWER “THINKING FOR WATER”

Although the severe heat wave in early May lasted only a few days in the north, capacity and electricity consumption in the north and across the country have also increased very sharply. For example, on May 6, 2023, although it is a weekend, the national consumption capacity has reached more than 43,300 MW, and the consumption amount on that day across the country has also reached more than 895 million kWh.

It is forecast that the north will reach the peak of the heat next May, June and July, the load on the national power grid will continue to increase and will be higher than the operation plan of the national power grid and trade approved by the Ministry of Industry. Industry and trade approved.

Meanwhile, the hydrological situation of the hydropower reservoirs has developed negatively several times in recent months and is well below the long-term average. Many hydroelectric reservoirs across the country have poor return water, the water flow in the northern hydroelectric reservoirs is about 60-70% in the first four months of the year compared to the long-term average of many hydroelectric reservoirs in the central and southern regions. There is also poor return water in the south.

By early May 2023, many hydroelectric reservoirs in the system were again at low water levels, potentially affecting security of power supply and meeting human needs for the remainder of the 2023 dry season.

Specifically, there are 10 hydroelectric power storage facilities owned by EVN and many hydroelectric power storage facilities owned by investors other than EVN that have reached or fallen below the dead water level (total capacity approx. 4,500 MW), including hydroelectric power storage facilities owned by EVN such as: Lai Chau, Tri An, Ialy, Ban Chat, Huoi Quang, Trung Son, Buon Kuop, Buon Tua Srah, Srepok 3, Ba Ha River. The remaining capacity in the lake of the entire system is 4.5 billion kWh, 1.6 billion kWh less than planned and 4.1 billion kWh less than the same period in 2022.

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the El Nino phenomenon will occur in the final months of 2023, causing temperatures to rise and rainfall to be below the average for many years. This means that the inflow to the lake tends to decrease further in the last months of the year.

THERMAL POWER “HEARS” COAL AND GAS

Earlier, in document 2187/EVN-KTSX+TTD sent to the Ministry of Industry and Trade to report on the electricity emergency situation, EVN explained that it was not only in need of water for electricity production, but also in lack of fuel supply The coal and gas-fired power plants are also facing difficulties.

Currently, the supply capacity of Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industries Group (TKV) and Northeast Corporation is 46 million tons, below the coal supply table for power generation in 2023 approved in Decision No. 163/QD-BCT dated 06/02/2023 was is more than 6 million tons. Around 1.3 million tons are missing in the EVN plants in particular.

Purchasing coal to supplement the quantity of coal that TKV and Northeast Corporation cannot supply encounters many difficulties due to market restrictions and coal import infrastructure, so that in a few moments, the factories ran out of coal.

As for gas fuel, according to the announcements by Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) and Vietnam Gas Corporation (PV GAS), the gas supply capacity in 2023 continues the downward trend compared to previous years as some entered the main mine period of decline. Expected production in 2023 is 5.6 billion m3, lower than 2022’s 1.31 billion m3.

In addition, some gas fields had long been depleted and experienced frequent outages, making it difficult to supply gas for power generation.

Renewable energy sources such as wind power are also expected to be below 2022 levels in May, June and July, towards the end of the dry season generation capacity tends to decrease, particularly at peak periods. evening every day.

According to EVN estimates, the hot and sunny peak months of the summer of 2023, with actual and calculated data, show that extreme situations such as: (Pmax) in the north increased by 15% over the same period in 2022 (long hot days); equipment failure or delay in repair and commissioning of a new source; If the water level from large hydroelectric power stations drops sharply, the northern power grid will find itself unable to meet peak demand in the months of May and June, with the largest deficit capacity estimated at around 1,600 MW. – 4,900 MW.

If the drought situation is severe in a large area, there is no flood or the flood is low, the power supply situation may remain difficult in the near future.

IMPLEMENTATION OF SEVERAL POWER SUPPLY SOLUTIONS

According to the plan, in 2023 EVN will optimally mobilize the hydroelectric sources in the north, combined with an increase in the maximum transmission from the center to the north, and regulate to raise the water level and keep it at the planned water level until the end of May. 2023 to increase the available capacity for hydroelectric power plants.

In addition, inspection, consolidation and remediation of defects will be strengthened to improve the reliability and availability of generator sets, transmission lines/substations. Coordinate with domestic fuel suppliers to create a plan to provide sufficient fuel for power generation.

Under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, EVN will also shift the peak times of small hydropower sources. At the same time, negotiations on purchasing electricity from abroad are to be intensified. For transition projects in the field of renewable energies, EVN will continue to negotiate and agree on a temporary operating price until both sides agree on an official electricity price in order to be able to use and provide the system in a timely manner.

In addition, EVN continues to develop a load adjustment program implementation plan to accelerate the implementation of the non-commercial voluntary load adjustment in the north region from May to August 2023.

In order to remove difficulties and obstacles, EVN proposed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade examine and direct PVN, TKV and Northeast Corporation to ensure stable supply of coal and gas, prioritize gas supply for power generation, and ensure stable supply of secure coal and gas. ensure stable operation of thermal power plants. Briefly comment on the recommendations of EVN in document no. 1499/EVNTTD+TCKT of March 30, 2023 on the principle of setting electricity prices for transitional projects in the field of renewable energies.

In the long term, from EVN’s point of view, a mechanism for the development of renewable energy sources and an addition to the planning of renewable energy sources in the northern region is necessary to ensure the electricity supply in the years to come. There is a mechanism to immediately encourage the development of rooftop solar power sources in the north for the purpose of self-consumption for local load needs.