Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan, director of the Center for Digital Transformation and Agricultural Statistics, said that rice exports were estimated at 430,000 tons worth US$231 million in February 2023. Cumulatively in the first two months of the year, rice exports reached 789,000 tons and USD 417 million, down 18.8% in volume and 10.8% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

EXPORT PRICE PRICE INCREASE

According to customs statistics, Vietnam’s rice export turnover will reach 7.1 million tons worth US$3.45 billion in 2022, up 13.8% in volume and 5.1% in turnover compared to the same period in 2021. The average export price reached 486 USD/ton.

Citing data from the customs, Mr. Toan said Vietnam’s rice exports reached 359,310 tons in January 2023, bringing in US$186.6 million, the average export price of US$519.3/ton. Compared to January 2022, the volume has decreased by 29%, but the export price has increased by 6.8%.

Vietnam’s rice exports continued to dominate key markets in January with strong demand for produce.

The Philippines was Vietnam’s largest rice consumption market as of January 2023 with a market share of 34.6%. Rice exports to this market in January 2023 reached 129.3 thousand tons and USD 64.55 million, down 44.7% in volume and 41.4% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

In January 2023, the market with the highest increase in rice export value was Taiwan (up 54.6%). In contrast, Gana was the market with the largest decline in rice export value (down 86.2%).

The average export price of rice in the first two months of 2023 was estimated at USD 528.5/ton, up 9.8% from the same period in 2022.

In February, shipments to Africa and Malaysia fell year-on-year, while shipments to China and the Philippines rose sharply.

“Grain shipments from the Black Sea continue under a United Nations-backed deal, but that deal is being renegotiated this week and there is a risk that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could escalate, which could result in the supply chain for Grain is interrupted again. Therefore, many traders are forecast to increase their rice purchases amid the uncertain global supply situation,” Nguyen Quoc Toan said.

India’s export rice prices have also risen to their highest level in almost two years on strong demand, although global supply risks remain. In India, 5% broken parboiled rice is currently priced at $397-404/ton, up $18/ton from last month. Consumer demand has surged in recent weeks due to lower Indian rice prices compared to peers.

India’s rice exports rose to a record high in 2022 despite the government’s restrictive measures, as buyers continued to receive competitive offers, according to officials from the Indian government and the rice industry of the world’s top exporter. To contain domestic prices, India plans to continue to ban the export of broken rice and impose a 20% tax on white rice exports.

In Thailand, the price of broken rice with a standard grade of 5% for export was $460/ton in February 2023, down $25/ton from the previous month when trade was calm. Thai traders believe new supplies will hit the market in early March-April, which could further weaken rice prices.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rice Supply and Demand Outlook Report February 2023, global rice production is expected to reach 503 million tonnes (milled rice) in crop year 2022/23, remaining almost unchanged from the same month, but down 2% the previous year’s record and the first annual decline since 2015/16. Global rice production is at its lowest since 2019/20. This month, rice production is expected to increase in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Uzbekistan and decrease in Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, EU and Vietnam.

6.5-6.7 MILLION TONNES OF RICE SHALL BE EXPORTED IN 2023

According to a report by the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), the production of raw rice for export is mainly concentrated in the Mekong Delta provinces, with other regions mainly for domestic consumption.

For the Mekong Delta, production is estimated at 24 million tons of rice. Wherein the domestic consumption for region and city. Ho Chi Minh City is about 10.8 million tons. Commodity rice for export in 2023 is estimated at 13.2 million tons, equivalent to 6.5-6.7 million tons of commodity rice for export.

The structure of the group of exported rice includes: high-quality rice, which reaches 3 million tons; fragrant special rice reached 2.1 million tons; the average quality rice group reached 0.9 million tons; Glutinous rice reached 0.6 million tons.

At the Rice Export Conference to be held in Ho Chi Minh City at the end of February 2023, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), said: “In the short term, rice prices are still high. Helping rice companies benefit from reserves in the coming period as well as preparing for the New Year,” said Mr. Nam.

Mr. Nguyen Phuc Nam, deputy director of the Asia-Africa Market Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), predicts that rice exports will remain cheap. In the short term, rice prices are still at good levels due to global economic and political uncertainties that are increasing the need for food reserves. This is a factor that will benefit the rice companies in the coming period.

Referring to the EU market, Hoang Minh Nhut, general director of Hoang Minh Nhat Company, said that under the EVFTA agreement, Vietnam will be granted a quota of 80,000 tons, of which 30,000 tons are white rice, 30,000 are fragrant rice and 20,000 tons are brown rice. Therefore, export rice orders listed in the above list are exempt from tax at ER 175/tonne. This is a great advantage for importers. Companies should find ways to increase production and rice varieties to reap the full benefits.

Mr. Phan Van Chinh, director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said China’s reopening of the market is a positive signal for rice exporters in 2023. However, the export market continues to face potential difficulties such as high sea freight rates, high input prices for rice production, as well as conflict situations in some regions of the world affecting food prices.

“Therefore, in order to ensure food security and export rice, it is recommended that the Vietnam Food Association and rice exporters improve the quality of rice and ensure the requirements of pesticide residues, animals, plant quarantine and traceability to make the most of the incentives.” free trade agreement,” Chinh said.